Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 13.751231 16.026917 18.508995 21.410257 24.701153 28.310599 32.561396
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 10.084878 13.161405 16.847947 21.558250 27.380548 34.302861 43.113360
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.408878 10.694813 14.971440 20.869197 28.703300 38.653687 52.132845
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.637127 8.910174 13.494256 20.249957 29.791314 42.598791 60.861553
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.596018 7.874033 12.770101 20.410149 31.775490 47.750376 71.510979
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.703865 6.852254 11.848660 20.069866 32.893640 51.682239 80.697647
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.287934 6.497658 11.860744 21.086097 36.051369 58.733600 94.842603
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.829560 5.970052 11.489848 21.402585 38.098176 64.229577 107.034769
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.414017 5.431778 11.003655 21.432770 39.636094 69.002265 118.405885
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.071197 4.960820 10.554852 21.445322 41.102028 73.718611 129.959098
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.966329 4.952574 10.956331 23.013052 45.353131 83.241499 149.825162
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.834961 4.860628 11.176572 24.254180 49.114938 92.182359 169.268126
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.665284 4.662790 11.181886 25.133893 52.395661 100.701134 188.857135
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.416509 4.227456 10.633132 24.862855 53.533434 105.622683 202.738472
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.158674 3.706459 9.811765 23.922660 53.287489 108.051471 212.445610
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.957241 3.279819 9.126146 23.166646 53.303170 110.919705 223.076501
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.839681 3.055638 8.876858 23.324838 55.162950 117.322667 240.470000
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.711854 2.765684 8.414467 22.934293 55.831732 121.486853 253.965477
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.669727 2.732008 8.599445 24.072530 59.843214 132.373022 280.661587
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.599698 2.587658 8.466695 24.426588 62.168278 140.063427 301.673039
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.526757 2.411990 8.217672 24.460011 63.776780 146.409766 320.430674
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.462717 2.248708 7.974338 24.473927 65.333925 152.737309 339.482130
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.456632 2.305215 8.384454 26.232438 71.066230 168.028336 377.061284